NexusHQ
Geopolitical-market intelligence platform that fuses four independent signal layers via Bayesian posterior updating. 59-tool AI analyst, game theory engine with 10 live scenarios, real-time war room, and direct broker integration.
Signal convergence
Convergence triggered when 3+ layers align temporally.
Geopolitical
Conflicts, sanctions, military posture, diplomatic shifts, regime changes
Sources: GDELT real-time feeds, ACLED conflict data. Time horizon: days to years.
Market
Options flow anomalies, volatility regime shifts, credit spreads, dark pool activity
Sources: Alpha Vantage, Yahoo Finance, Twelve Data. Time horizon: hours to days.
OSINT
Military aircraft tracking (20s polling), vessel monitoring at chokepoints, dark fleet detection
Sources: OpenSky Network, GDELT maritime, VIIRS satellite. Time horizon: days to weeks.
Systemic risk
Contagion modeling, yield curve, VIX regime, Bayesian Change Point Detection for regime shifts
Sources: FRED (31+ series), treasury curves. Time horizon: early-warning 2-3 weeks ahead.
Example convergence
Geopolitical layer detects military posture shift in the Strait of Hormuz. OSINT layer picks up unusual vessel rerouting patterns. Calendar layer flags OPEC meeting in 48 hours. Market layer shows unusual call buying in oil futures. Four independent signals, one convergent thesis: oil supply disruption risk is elevated. The AI analyst synthesizes this into a briefing with trade recommendations and confidence scoring, then the prediction engine tracks it with Brier score calibration.
What's inside
Eight core systems working together. Each one is production-grade on its own, together they do something that doesn't exist anywhere else.
AI analyst (59 tools)
Conversational intelligence agent powered by Claude with 59 specialized tools. Market lookups, GDELT search, portfolio analytics, game theory scenarios, and direct trade execution through natural conversation.
War room
Real-time 2D/3D geopolitical map with military aircraft tracking (15,000+ VIP database), vessel monitoring at critical chokepoints, OSINT feed overlays, ACLED conflict heatmaps, and satellite positions.
Game theory engine
10 built-in geopolitical scenarios modeled as N-player sequential games. Nash equilibria, Prospect Theory, Fearon bargaining models, and Quantal Response Equilibrium with real-time payoff updates.
Prediction engine
Falsifiable predictions with Brier score calibration. Pre-event locking prevents hindsight bias. Per-category accuracy tracking and damped half-gap correction.
Thesis generation
Automated intelligence briefs synthesizing technical snapshots, sentiment, convergences, and game theory. Red team adversarial layer challenges every thesis. Walk-forward accuracy feeds credibility scoring.
Knowledge bank
Institutional memory with pgvector semantic search (1024-dim Voyage AI embeddings). Store theses, world models, actor profiles, and historical patterns. Base rate anchoring and duplicate detection.
50+ dashboard widgets
Configurable dashboard: candlestick charts, 31 FRED series, yield curve, VIX gauge, gamma exposure, credit stress, congressional trading, on-chain analytics, shipping intelligence, and more.
Trading integration
Direct connection to Interactive Brokers, IG Markets, Trading212, and Coinbase. Portfolio risk analytics including VaR, Sharpe ratio, and max drawdown. Execute trades from chat or thesis recommendations.
59-tool AI analyst
Superforecasting protocol requires 5-tool parallel calls before assigning probabilities, regime detection before every analysis, and forced engagement with strongest counterarguments. Every thesis gets adversarial challenge from a separate red team prompt.
Market analysis
- Live quotes & price history
- Options flow & gamma exposure
- Monte Carlo simulation
- Market regime detection
- Correlation monitor
- Economic nowcast
Geopolitical intel
- GDELT event search
- Game theory scenarios
- Power balance analysis
- Actor profiles
- VIP aircraft lookup
- GPR index decomposition
Specialized intel
- Congressional trading (STOCK Act)
- Short interest signals
- On-chain whale monitoring
- Shipping intelligence
- Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi)
- Supply chain exposure
Portfolio & execution
- Direct order placement
- Risk metrics (VaR, Sharpe)
- DCF valuation
- Position sizing
- Polymarket order execution
- Unified portfolio view
Game theory engine
Models real-world strategic interactions as N-player sequential games with incomplete information. Dynamic payoffs update in real-time as conditions change.
Bayesian Nash Equilibria
(Harsanyi 1967) with brute-force strategy search
Prospect Theory
(Kahneman and Tversky) with a loss aversion coefficient of 2.25
Quantal Response Equilibrium
(McKelvey and Palfrey) for bounded rationality
Fearon Bargaining Model
with audience costs, conflict likely when the range collapses below 20%
Correlated Equilibrium
(Aumann 1974) quantifying mediator improvement
5-level escalation ladder
with wartime threshold detection
10 live scenarios
Taiwan Strait, Iran Nuclear, OPEC Production, Russia-Ukraine Endgame, US-China Trade War, Hormuz Closure, India-Pakistan Kashmir, Red Sea Shipping, EU Energy Crisis, DPRK Provocation
Structured intelligence briefings
The thesis system generates structured intelligence briefings with executive summaries, situation assessments, risk scenarios, and trading actions. AI suggestions surface convergence-driven opportunities based on active signals.
- Market regime, volatility, convergence density, and confidence scoring at a glance
- AI-generated thesis suggestions based on active signals and context
- Tagged with signal layers and relevant instruments for fast scanning
- Red team adversarial challenge before every thesis ships
Why this exists
Most financial platforms treat geopolitics as a news feed bolted onto a charting tool. Markets and geopolitics are interconnected systems, analyzing them separately means missing the patterns that matter most.
Nexus was built for the trader who reads foreign policy journals and options flow in the same sitting. The one who noticed the shipping reroutes before the headline. The one who wants their predictions scored with Brier scores.
Convergence across layers
Bayesian posterior updating with conditional dependency matrices across 4 independent layers. Exponential likelihood ratios, not naive averaging.
Accountable predictions
Brier score calibration, pre-event locking, Wilson score confidence intervals, with full receipts.
Analysis to execution
Generate thesis, validate with AI, execute trade, all without leaving the platform. Four broker integrations.
Geopolitical first
Designed for traders who understand real-world events drive markets. Game theory with academic foundations.
Built for
Macro traders
Synthesize geopolitical events with market data to find directional opportunities before consensus pricing catches up. Game theory models quantify conflict probability and market impact.
Hedge fund research
Generate intelligence briefs with adversarial challenge layers. Track predictions with Brier scores. Build institutional memory through the knowledge bank with semantic search.
Options & volatility
Gamma exposure engine shows dealer hedging mechanics and zero-gamma inflection points. BOCPD detects volatility regime shifts. Geopolitical catalysts mapped to vol expansion scenarios.
Intelligence professionals
War room with live OSINT, aircraft/vessel tracking, and Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH). Dark fleet detection and chokepoint monitoring hours ahead of news.
Pricing
Analyst
$49.99/month
Signal detection and AI-assisted analysis for individual traders
- Signal detection engine
- AI chat analyst (100 msgs/day)
- Daily thesis generation
- Prediction tracking with Brier scores
- War Room (view-only)
- Email alerts
- Macro dashboard widgets
- Knowledge bank access
Operator
$99.99/month
Full platform access with live execution and real-time intelligence
- Everything in Analyst
- Unlimited AI analyst (59 tools)
- Trading broker integration (live)
- Real-time War Room + live OSINT
- Game theory engine
- Gamma exposure & regime detection
- Portfolio risk analytics
- API access
Institution
$199.99/month
Dedicated infrastructure and custom integrations for teams
- Everything in Operator
- Unlimited seats
- Custom data integrations
- Dedicated infrastructure
- MCP server for external agents
- White-label option
- SLA guarantee
- Direct engineering support
See what's forming
Most traders react to headlines. Nexus shows you the convergence building across domains most aren't watching simultaneously.
Visit NexusHQ